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Creators/Authors contains: "Hanly, Patrick J"

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  1. Abstract Local and regional‐scaled studies point to the important role of lake type (natural lakes vs. reservoirs), surface water connectivity, and ecological context (multi‐scaled natural settings and human factors) in mediating lake responses to disturbances like drought. However, we lack an understanding at the macroscale that incorporates multiple scales (lake, watershed, region) and a variety of ecological contexts. Therefore, we used data from the LAGOS‐US research platform and applied a local water year timeframe to 62,927 US natural lakes and reservoirs across 17 ecoregions to examine how chlorophyllaresponds to drought across various ecological contexts. We evaluated chlorophyllachanges relative to each lake's baseline and drought year. Drought led to lower and higher chlorophyllain 18% and 20%, respectively, of lakes (both natural lakes and reservoirs included). Natural lakes had higher magnitudes of change and probabilities of increasing chlorophylladuring droughts than reservoirs, and these differences were particularly pronounced in isolated and highly‐connected lakes. Drought responses were also related to long‐term average lake chlorophyllain complex ways, with a positive correlation in less productive lakes and a negative correlation in more productive lakes, and more pronounced drought responses in higher‐productivity lakes than lower‐productivity lakes. Thus, lake chlorophyll responses to drought are related to interactions between lake type and surface connectivity, long‐term average chlorophylla, and many other multi‐scaled ecological factors (e.g., soil erodibility, minimum air temperature). These results reinforce the importance of integrating multi‐scaled ecological context to determine and predict the impacts of global changes on lakes. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2026
  2. Climate change is predicted to intensify lake algal blooms globally and result in regime shifts. However, observed increases in algal biomass do not consistently correlate with air temperature or precipitation, and evidence is lacking for a causal effect of climate or the nonlinear dynamics needed to demonstrate regime shifts. We modeled the causal effects of climate on annual lake chlorophyll (a measure of algal biomass) over 34 y for 24,452 lakes across broad ecoclimatic zones of the United States and evaluated the potential for regime shifts. We found that algal biomass was causally related to climate in 34% of lakes. In these cases, 71% exhibited abrupt but mostly temporary shifts as opposed to persistent changes, 13% had the potential for regime shifts. Climate was causally related to algal biomass in lakes experiencing all levels of human disturbance, but with different likelihood. Climate causality was most likely to be observed in lakes with minimal human disturbance and cooler summer temperatures that have increased over the 34 y studied. Climate causality was variable in lakes with low to moderate human disturbance, and least likely in lakes with high human disturbance, which may mask climate causality. Our results explain some of the previously observed heterogeneous climate responses of lake algal biomass globally and they can be used to predict future climate effects on lakes. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 4, 2026
  3. The LAGOS-US RESERVOIR data module (hereafter, RESERVOIR) classifies all 137,465 lakes > 4 hectares in the conterminous U.S. into one of the following three categories using a machine-learning predictive model based on visual interpretation of lake outlines and a classification rule based on lake shape. Natural Lakes (NLs) are defined as lakes that are likely to be entirely or mostly naturally-formed and that do not have large, flow-altering structures on or near them; Reservoir Class A’s (RSVR_A) are defined as lakes that are likely to be either human-made or highly human-altered by the presence of a relatively large water control structure that appears to significantly change the flow of water; and Reservoir Class B’s (RSVR_Bs) are lakes that are likely to be entirely human-made based on isolation from rivers and a highly angular shape that is rarely, if ever, seen in natural lakes also often. We trained the machine learning models on 12,162 manually-classified lakes to assign probabilities of a lake being in 1 of 2 of the categories (NL or RSVR), then we further classified the RSVR classification into either A or B based on NHD Fcodes, isolation, and angularity. The data module includes a detailed User Guide, metadata tables, and a data table that includes information such as location, lake geometry, surface water connectivity class, and official name. Using our definition, our classification indicates that over 46 % of lakes > 4 ha in the conterminous U.S. are reservoir lakes. These data can be combined with other LAGOS-US data modules and U.S. national databases using unique lake identifiers to study both reservoir lakes and natural lakes at broad scales. 
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  4. Abstract Maintaining regional‐scale freshwater connectivity is challenging due to the dendritic, easily fragmented structure of freshwater networks, but is essential for promoting ecological resilience under climate change. Although the importance of stream network connectivity has been recognized, lake‐stream network connectivity has largely been ignored. Furthermore, protected areas are generally not designed to maintain or encompass entire freshwater networks. We applied a coarse‐filter approach to identify potential freshwater corridors for diverse taxa by calculating connectivity scores for 385 lake‐stream networks across the conterminous United States based on network size, structure, resistance to fragmentation, and dam prevalence. We also identified 2080 disproportionately important lakes for maintaining intact networks (i.e., hubs; 2% of all network lakes) and analyzed the protection status of hubs and potential freshwater corridors. Just 3% of networks received high connectivity scores based on their large size and structure (medians of 1303 lakes, 498.6 km north–south stream distance), but these also contained a median of 454 dams. In contrast, undammed networks (17% of networks) were considerably smaller (medians of six lakes, 7.2 km north–south stream distance), indicating that the functional connectivity of the largest potential freshwater corridors in the conterminous United States currently may be diminished compared with smaller, undammed networks. Network lakes and hubs were protected at similar rates nationally across different levels of protection (8%–18% and 6%–20%, respectively), but were generally more protected in the western United States. Our results indicate that conterminous United States protection of major freshwater corridors and the hubs that maintain them generally fell short of the international conservation goal of protecting an ecologically representative, well‐connected set of fresh waters (≥17%) by 2020 (Aichi Target 11). Conservation planning efforts might consider focusing on restoring natural hydrologic connectivity at or near hubs, particularly in larger networks, less protected, or biodiverse regions, to support freshwater biodiversity conservation under climate change. 
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  5. The LAGOS-US LAKE DEPTH v1.0 module (hereafter, called DEPTH) contains in situ measurements of lake depth for a subset of all lakes (n = 17,675) in the conterminous U.S. > 1 ha (3.7% of 479,950) that are in the LAGOS-US LOCUS v1.0 data module (Smith et al. 2021). All 17,675 lakes in DEPTH have a maximum depth value and 6,137 lakes have a mean depth. DEPTH includes approximately 65 data sources obtained from community, government, and university monitoring programs, as well as academic reports and commercial websites. DEPTH includes lake identifiers, lake location, lake area, lake depth (both maximum and mean depth when available), source information, and data flags. The unique lake identifier (lagoslakeid) for all lakes is the same one used in LAGOS-US LOCUS v1.0. 
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  6. Abstract The LAGOS‐US RESERVOIR data module classifies all 137,465 lakes ≥ 4 ha in the conterminous U.S. into three categories using a machine learning predictive model based on visual interpretation of lake outlines and a lake shape classification rule. Natural Lakes (NLs) are defined as naturally formed, lacking large, flow‐altering structures; Reservoir Class A's (RSVR_A) are defined as lakes likely human‐made or human‐altered by a large water control structure; and Reservoir Class B's (RSVR_Bs) are lakes likely human‐made but are not connected to streams and have a shape rare in NLs. We trained machine learning models on 12,162 manually classified lakes to predict assignment as an NL or RSVR, then further classified RSVRs based on NHD Fcodes, isolation, and angularity. Our classification indicates that > 46% of lakes ≥ 4 ha in the conterminous U.S. are reservoir lakes. These data can be easily combined with other LAGOS‐US modules and U.S. national databases for the broad‐scale study of reservoir lakes and NLs. 
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